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2024 Oscars Final Predictions in Every Category: Who Will Win?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

Awards Circuit Column: (Updated March 5, 2024): As Frodo famously whispered to Samwise after casting the One Ring into the fiery abyss in the epic finale of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”: “It is done.”

The curtains have closed on final Oscar voting, and the air is thick with anticipation as the envelopes are primed to reveal the chosen ones in 23 categories. But first, let’s delve into what we already know.

Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster “Oppenheimer,” which recounts the saga of the father of the atomic bomb, is poised to sweep the night. Having clinched every major guild and industry accolade — Golden Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, BAFTA, SAG and PGA — it’s the first movie to have a “perfect season” since “Argo” (2012). The Universal Pictures biopic might match the record set by 1961’s “West Side Story,” which claimed a breathtaking 10 awards, the second most in history.

Locked and loaded are the supporting acting categories: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) have stolen hearts with their captivating performances, and they lead the pack with critical acclaim and endearing speeches.

Yet, amid the certainty, the lead acting races offer a twist or two. The realm of lead actor has long been ruled by Cillian Murphy’s magnetic portrayal of the conflicted scientist in Nolan’s magnum opus. However, the final stretch of voting has seen two seasoned stalwarts — Paul Giamatti from “The Holdovers” and Jeffrey Wright from “American Fiction” — make formidable strides. Murphy maintains a firm grip, but the allure of a career actor getting his due might sway voters.

In best actress, the competition is as fierce as it gets. Emma Stone’s transformation into a woman with a child’s brain in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” has garnered substantial support. Yet Lily Gladstone’s groundbreaking win at the SAG Awards for her riveting performance in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” may bring enough momentum to clinch victory in the heat of voting. Furthermore, Sandra Hüller’s ferocious turn in French legal thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” could split votes with Stone among international members, paving the way for Gladstone’s ascent.

Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” drew a lukewarm reception at the guild awards, though it appears to be the frontrunner in the original song category, with the Grammy-winning “What Was I Made For?” positioned to claim the prize. But that could be it for 2023’s box office leader. The film does stand on the precipice in adapted screenplay and might snag a tech award or two, which could add further glitter to its night.

Based on the forecast, only two films are projected to win two or more stauettes: “Oppenheimer” with eight, and “Barbie” with two. This would be the first time of such an occurrence since “The English Patient” and “Fargo” (1997), which won nine and two respectively.

Variety’s final Oscar predictions are below.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

Best Picture

Best Picture
Best Picture


American Fiction” (MGM)
Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson
Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi
Maestro (Netflix)
Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone
The Zone of Interest” (A24)
James Wilson

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan)
Could Win: “The Zone of Interest” (James Wilson)
Should Win: “American Fiction” (Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson)
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg) and “Origin” (Ava DuVernay and Paul Garnes)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Director

Director
Director


Jonathan Glazer
The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Yorgos Lanthimos
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan ***
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Martin Scorsese
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Justine Triet
Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

Will Win: Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
Could Win: Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
Should Win: Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
Should have been here: Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”) and Ava DuVernay (“Origin”)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actor in a Leading Role

Actor in a Leading Role
Actor in a Leading Role


Bradley Cooper
Maestro” (Netflix)
Colman Domingo
Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti
The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Cillian Murphy ***
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright
American Fiction” (MGM)

Will Win: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
Could Win: Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
Should have been here: Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”) and Glenn Howerton (“BlackBerry”)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actress in a Leading Role

Actress in a Leading Role
Actress in a Leading Role


Annette Bening
Nyad” (Netflix)
Lily Gladstone ***
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Sandra Hüller
Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Carey Mulligan
Maestro” (Netflix)
Emma Stone
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Could Win: Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
Should have been here: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”) and Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actor in a Supporting Role

Actor in a Supporting Role
Actor in a Supporting Role


Sterling K. Brown
American Fiction” (MGM)
Robert DeNiro
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr. ***
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling
Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
Could Win: Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
Should Win: Ryan Gosling
Should have been here: John Magaro (“Past Lives”) and Milo Machado Graner (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Actress in a Supporting Role

Actress in a Supporting Role
Actress in a Supporting Role


Emily Blunt
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Danielle Brooks
The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
America Ferrera
Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Jodie Foster
Nyad” (Netflix)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph ***
The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Could Win: Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should have been here: Laurie Metcalf (“Somewhere in Queens”) and Audra McDonald (“Origin”)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

Original Screenplay
Original Screenplay


Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) ***
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
David Hemingson
Maestro” (Netflix)
Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
May December” (Netflix)
Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
Past Lives” (A24)
Celine Song

Will Win: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
Could Win: “Past Lives” (Celine Song)
Should Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should have been here: “Monster” (Yuji Sakamoto) and “The Boy and the Heron” (Hayao Miyazaki)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

Adapted Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay


American Fiction” (MGM) ***
Cord Jefferson
Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Jonathan Glazer

Will Win: “American Fiction” (Cord Jefferson)
Could Win: “Oppenheimer” (Christopher Nolan)
Should Win: “American Fiction”
Should have been here: “Origin” (Ava DuVernay) and “Robot Dreams” (Pablo Berger)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

Animated Feature
Animated Feature


The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
Elemental” (Pixar)
Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
Nimona” (Netflix)
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
Robot Dreams” (Neon)
Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal

Will Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal)
Could Win: “The Boy and the Heron” (Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki)
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Should have been here: “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” ( Jeff Rowe, Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Kevin Eastman)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

Production Design
Production Design


Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Arthur Max (production designer), Elli Griff (set decorator)
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Szusza Mihalek (set decorator)

Will Win: “Poor Things” (Shona Heath, James Price, Szusza Mihalek)
Could Win: “Barbie” (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
Should Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Jack Fisk, Adam Willis)
Should have been here: “The Taste of Things” (Toma Baqueni) and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Patrick O’Keefe)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

Cinematography
Cinematography


El Conde” (Netflix)
Edward Lachman
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro” (Netflix)
Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Robbie Ryan

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Rodrigo Prieto)
Should Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should have been here: “Ferrari” (Erik Messerschmidt) and “Saltburn” (Linus Sandgren)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

Costume Design
Costume Design


Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline Durran
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jacqueline West
Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
David Crossman, Janty Yates
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ellen Mirojnick
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Holly Waddington

Will Win: “Barbie” (Jacqueline Durran)
Could Win: “Poor Things” (Holly Waddington)
Should Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Jacqueline West)
Should have been here: “Blue Beetle” (Mayes Rubeo) and “The Taste of Things” (Nu Yên-Khê Tran)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

Film Editing
Film Editing


Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Laurent Sénéchal
The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Kevin Tent
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Thelma Schoonmaker
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Jennifer Lame
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Jennifer Lame)
Could Win: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Laurent Sénéchal)
Should Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should have been here: “Air” (William Goldenberg) and “The Iron Claw” (Matthew Hannam)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling
Makeup and Hairstyling


Golda” (Bleecker Street)
Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Luisa Abel
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

Will Win: “Maestro” (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)
Could Win: “Poor Things” (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)
Should Win: “Maestro”
Should have been here: “BlackBerry” (Dylan Twigg, Ashley Vieira) and “The Iron Claw” (Natalie Shea Rose, Elle Favorule)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Sound

Sound
Sound


The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
Maestro” (Netflix)
Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)
Could Win: “The Zone of Interest” (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)
Should Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should have been here: “Robot Dreams” (Steven Ghouti, Fabiola Ordoyo, Laia Picón) and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Michael Semanick, Juan Peralta, Geoffrey G. Rubay)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

Visual Effects
Visual Effects


The Creator” (20th Century Studios) ***
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
Godzilla: Minus One” (Toho)
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

Will Win: “The Creator” (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
Could Win: “Godzilla Minus One” (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
Should Win: “The Creator”
Should have been here: “Elemental” (Sanjay Bakshi, Stephen Marshall, Jon Reisch, Junyi Ling) and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, Pav Grochola)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

Original Score
Original Score


American Fiction” (MGM)
Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jerskin Fendrix

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Ludwig Göransson)
Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Robbie Robertson)
Should Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should have been here: “Saltburn” (Anthony Willis) and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Daniel Pemberton)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

Original Song
Original Song


American Symphony” (Netflix)
“It Never Went Away” by Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson
Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren
Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” by Scott George

Will Win: “Barbie” (“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell)
Could Win: “Barbie” (“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”
Should have been here: “The Iron Claw” (“Live That Way Forever” by Laurel Sprengelmeyer and Richard Reed Parry, Little Scream) and “The Color Purple” (“Workin’” by Blitz Bazawule and Nick Baxter)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

Documentary Feature
Documentary Feature


Bobi Wine: The People’s President” (National Geographic)
Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)
Nominees to be determined
Four Daughters” (Kino Lorber)
Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
To Kill a Tiger” (National Film Board of Canada, NFB)
Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) ***
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

Will Win: “20 Days in Mariupol” (Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath)
Could Win: “To Kill a Tiger” (Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim)
Should Win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
Should have been here: “American Symphony” (Matthew Heineman, Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun) and “Beyond Utopia” (Madeleine Gavin, Rachel Cohen, Jana Edelbaum, Sue Mi Terry)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

International Feature
International Feature


Io Capitano” from Italy (01 Distribution)
dir. Matteo Garrone
Perfect Days” from Japan (Neon)
dir. Wim Wenders
Society of the Snow” from Spain (Netflix)
dir. J.A. Bayona
The Teachers’ Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. İlker Çatak
The Zone of Interest” from United Kingdom (A24) ***
dir. Jonathan Glazer

Will Win: “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
Could Win: “Perfect Days” (Japan)
Should Win: “The Zone of Interest”
Should have been here: “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania) and “The Taste of Things” (France)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

Animated Short
Animated Short


Letter to a Pig” (Miyu Distribution)
Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
Ninety-Five Senses” (Documentary+)
Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
Our Uniform” (Distributor TBA)
Yegane Moghaddam
Pachyderme” (Miyu Distribution)
Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (ElectroLeague) ***
Dave Mullins and Brad Booker

Will Win: “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (Dave Mullins and Brad Booker)
Could Win: “Letter to a Pig” (Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter)
Should Win: “Pachyderme” (Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius)
Should have been here: “Once Upon a Studio” (Dan Abraham, Trent Correy)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Short

Documentary Short
Documentary Short


The ABCs of Book Banning” (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+) ***
Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
The Barber of Little Rock” (Story Syndicate)
John Hoffman and Christine Turner
Island in Between” (The New York Times Op-Docs)
S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
The Last Repair Shop” (L.A. Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Sean Wang and Sam Davis

Will Win: “The ABCs of Book Banning” (Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic)
Could Win: “The Last Repair Shop” (Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers)
Should Win: “The Last Repair Shop”
Should have been here: “Relighting Candles: The Tim Sullivan Story” (Zeberiah Newman, Michiel Thomas)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Live Action Short

Live Action Short
Live Action Short


The After” (Netflix) ***
Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
Invincible” (H264 Distribution)
Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
Knight of Fortune” (Jalabert Production)
Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
Red, White and Blue” (Brandy Rivers/Industry Entertainment)
Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix)
Wes Anderson and Steven Rales

Will win: “The After” (Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham)
Could win: “Red, White and Blue” (Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane)
Should win: “Red, White and Blue”
Should have been here: “Strange Way of Life” (Pedro Almodóvar)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

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