Yahoo Movies How accurate are opinion polls for UK general election 2019?
In just one day from today, millions of people across the UK will be voting in the general election.
Opinion polls are continuing to suggest the Conservative Party is still enjoying a comfortable lead over Labour.
The latest poll average puts the Tories on 43 percent, the Labour party on 33 and the Liberal Democrats on 13. The Brexit Party and the Greens still tied down on three percent.
Meanwhile a major poll as suggested the Conservative Party would win a big majority.
What are the chances of the polls shifting decisively between now and election day?
Around two weeks before the 2017 election, the polls showed the Conservatives on 44 per cent with Labour on 35 per cent, the Lib Dems on nine per cent, Ukip on four per cent and the Greens on two per cent.
But on election day, the Tories finished on 43 per cent – one point below where they had been two weeks earlier – while Labour had risen six points to 41 per cent.
The Lib Dems dropped one point to eight per cent, while both Ukip and the Greens finished on two per cent.
The change was enough to deny the Tories a majority and produce a hung parliament.
There was movement in 2015 as well, albeit on a smaller scale and with different consequences.
Two weeks before polling day in 2015, both the Tories and Labour were averaging 34 per cent with Ukip on 14 per cent the Lib Dems eight per cent and the Greens five per cent.
These figures pointed to a hung parliament – but come election day, the Tories opened up a seven-point lead over Labour to finish on 38 per cent while Labour ended on 31 per cent.
Ukip, the Lib Dems and Green finished on 13 per cent, eight per cent and four per cent respectively.
This was enough to give the Conservatives a small overall majority in parliament.
The pattern in 2015 and 2017 suggests a lot can change in the two weeks before polling day.
It also serves as a reminder that polls are not predictions, merely snapshots of opinion at a certain point in time.
