New polling confirms that President Joe Biden is losing young voters at an accelerating rate and, as a result, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump holds an edge in five battleground states.
The polls, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, found that the tide has turned in five states that voted for Biden in the 2020 election, as Trump now leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Biden maintains a two-point lead in Wisconsin.
While the president’s stance on the Gaza crisis has most recently warded off younger voters, the polls find that it is primarily economic concerns that has voters fleeing back to Trump: Fifty-nine percent of those polled trusted Trump more when comes to the economy, compared to 37 percent for Biden. Even voters under 30 who were polled trusted Trump more than Biden when it comes to the economy, with the former president holding a 28 percentage-point margin in that regard. Only two percent of those polled said the economy was “excellent,” a result of years of escalating inflation and interest rates.
However, where Biden should be most concerned is the staggering drop in both the youth vote and his support among minorities: Biden’s support among voters under 30 has plummeted to single digits, and Black voters’ support of Trump has risen to 22 percent, which the New York Times notes is unprecedented for a Republican presidential candidate in recent history. Additionally, 59-percent of those polled said they “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s “handling” of the job of president.
It wasn’t all good news for Trump as the polls still found that the majority of voters still find him “deeply unpopular,” but Biden is now near-equally unfavorable as well. That opinion was mirrored by a CBS News poll conducted this week and released Sunday that found that Trump currently holds a three-point lead (51 to 48) over Biden in the 2024 election.
The % of Americans who think things are going badly today has hit a high for the year – so we might expect any incumbent to be down.
And Biden is trailing Trump in a potential 2024 match-up by 3 points. https://t.co/XyjrRAogP3 pic.twitter.com/z84n9zb6wO
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) November 5, 2023
Like the NYT/Siena poll, Trump has built a significant lead on economic issues, as well as his perceived handling of the situations in Gaza and Ukraine; the CBS News poll found that likely voters believe Trump was more likely of the two (by 16 percent) to “increase peace & stability,” while Biden was more likely to “increase chances of U.S. in a war” by 10 percent over Trump.
If the results of the poll predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential election a year from now, Trump — if the Republican candidate — has a pathway to 300 electoral college votes and a return to the presidency.
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