Can Bollywood bounce back in 2025?

In the trailer for the upcoming Hindi film, Sky Force, a Pakistani official asks the lead character — played by actor Akshay Kumar — his identity. "Your father - India," he deadpans.

Timed to coincide with India’s 76th Republic Day, Sky Force sees Kumar, 57, play an air force officer who embarks on a daring air strike during the 1965 India-Pakistan war. The 2:48 minute preview has six mentions of Pakistan, a lecture on patriotism, a resolve to "strike at the homes: of India’s pesky neighbour and a subtle reproach of peaceful conflict resolution.

The film is set in the ‘60s but the sentiments perfectly echo the muscular nationalism dominating contemporary narratives in India.

Sky Force may or may not strike box-office gold but if the teaser indicates the direction in which cinematic winds are likely to blow, discerning fans have little to hope for in 2025. The chest-thumping patriotism, average CGI and routine Pakistan-bashing evoke a distinct sense of deja vu as the clamour around the decline of Bollywood grows in social media and pop culture discourse.

Is the Bollywood story losing its ground?

For decades, Bollywood (an amalgamation of ‘Bombay’ and ‘Hollywood’) eclipsed India’s other robust film industries, notably from the South and East. The larger-than-life spectacles and heightened emotions of Hindi films captured the imagination of the West while actors like Amitabh Bachchan and Shah Rukh Khan enjoyed global appeal.

2024 was the year in which the fortunes reversed. Be it economically or creatively, Bollywood seems to be on a downward curve with the fall attributed to several factors: changing audience tastes, shoddy story-telling, lack of originality and fading stars.

Numbers don’t lie

To be fair, the numerical wrapping looks pretty. In 2023, Indian cinema generated $1.42 billion in box office revenue, while 2024 earned $1.38 billion, in which Hindi films boasted a share of 40%.

Unwrap the gift and the real deal emerges. The 2024 Indian box office was topped by Telugu (from the state of Andhra Pradesh) blockbusters like Pushpa The Rule: Part 2 and Kalki 2898 AD, with the former minting over $160 million.

Where did Hindi original films fit in? It turns out, they just managed to scrape through.

Ormax, a media consulting firm, noted that 31% of Hindi cinema’s collections came from dubbed versions of South films. The poor revenues even led prominent multiplex chains like PVR Inox to re-release films from the ‘90s and noughties — a strategy that worked well as the 47 old films showcased between April and August enjoyed 31% occupancy rate compared with new films which hovered about 25%.

A deeper dive uncovers an even more sorry story, with lack of originality as big a problem in Bollywood as it is Hollywood. For instance, the feminist horror-comedy Stree 2, the most profitable 2024 Hindi film earning over $80 million, was a sequel to 2019’s Stree. The next biggest hit, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, another horror comedy, was the third instalment of a 2006 movie that itself was a remake of a South Indian classic.

Another noteworthy money spinner, the star-studded Singham Again, was a follow-up to a ‘cop universe’ that had two editions in 2011 and 2014. A heavy dose of religious symbolism, high-octane action and patriotism made Singham Again a hit but its content was roasted by critics. Interestingly, 2024’s list of the top 10 most profitable Indian films has only two Bollywood films with South Indian movies filling in the rest.

In a nutshell: qualitative and experimental Hindi films were few and far between, while mainstream flicks remained stuck in a rut of biopics, patriotic movies, horror comedies, remakes and sequels. The economics of filmmaking became another talking point as budgets hit the roof due to astronomical fees paid to lead actors, prompting even prominent filmmakers like Karan Johar to lambast stars for "not being in touch with reality".

The content crisis

Finances aside, the more glaring problem is the crisis of content, exacerbated by the streaming boom. With Netflix, Amazon and Disney Hotstar enthralling film enthusiasts with top notch movies and series from within India and across the world, audience tastes changed drastically — a challenge most filmmakers in Hindi failed to match up to.

Simultaneously, cinema from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra stood out with their originality, fresh treatment, audacity of imagination and ingenious craft.

There was another striking difference. Kerala and Tamil Nadu in particular made political and social dramas that didn’t pull any punches. Be it commenting on feminism (The Great Indian Kitchen), toxic masculinity (Kumbalangi Nights) or casteism (Jai Bhim), Southern cinema showed spunk and sass while the same period saw the rise of what detractors called, ‘the propaganda film’ in Bollywood — movies that were unabashedly pro-government, whipped up hyper-nationalist sentiments and gave alternative spins to historical facts, filled with dog whistles against minorities and liberals.

The success of films like The Kashmir Files, The Kerala Story and The Sabarmati Report — applauded and actively promoted by India’s ruling party — were seen to directly align with the government’s ideology. The bold nature of South Indian films stood in stark contrast to the pusillanimity of Bollywood.

Star power on the wane

Compounding Bollywood’s problems was the fading aura of its leading stars. For the last three decades, three male actors were key to the globalisation of Hindi films: Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir Khan and Salman Khan. Now pushing 60, the Khans seem to be the last of the superstars.

Younger talent like Ranbir Kapoor, Ranveer Singh, Rajkummar Rao, Ayushmann Khurrana have a fabulous fan base but not the enduring charisma — essential in a star-driven industry. 'Is the vacuum too big to be filled?' is the question often asked in India.

Looking ahead: The opportunity

In an otherwise bleak scenario, the opportunity lies elsewhere. While Hindi films may be going through a creative stagnation, Indian entertainment is on a high. The massive success of RRR in the West and its Academy award for Best Original Song has shone the spotlight on cinema from this part of the world.

In 2023-24 Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light has been winning accolades including the Grand Prix at Cannes and nominations at the recent Golden Globe Awards. India’s Oscar nominee Lost Ladies (Laapataa Ladies) too was lauded across the board for its sensitive storytelling.

The path ahead for Bollywood is clear: encourage new filmmakers and fresh stories. In the new world order, it’s deviation not conformity that brings success and critical acclaim. The industry can chart a new course provided it wakes up and smells the chai that has clearly changed its spice.

Sky Force is in UK cinemas from 24 January.