Everyone, take a moment.
Regardless of last week’s result, you made it through the first of two huge bye weeks.
That in itself deserves some praise.
Things get more fun in Week 8 with all 32 teams back in action.
While that gives you a lot more flexibility with your lineup decisions, it also makes deciding who to start or sit much tougher than the past few weeks.
But don’t sweat it. I have you covered.
Every week, I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Justin Herbert (LAC)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Jared Goff (DET) is back at home this week, which means we are starting Goff in fantasy this week. Sure, last week’s 10.2-point outing was disappointing, but it was on the road against a stout Baltimore defense. Things get much easier this week, as the Raiders have allowed the eighth-highest EPA per drop-back (0.02), according to Next Gen Stats. Averaging 19.7 fantasy points at home since 2021, Goff may have the highest floor of any quarterback this week.
— C.J. Stroud (HOU) is a QB1 this week. Two quiet weeks followed by a bye may have dampened some of his hype, but Stroud’s three top-12 finishes have proven his fantasy relevance. The rookie enters Week 8 with the fifth-highest EPA per drop-back (0.07) — a number that should continue to climb with Tank Dell back from his concussion. He’s in a good spot to produce against a Carolina defense allowing the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back (0.43) and the sixth-highest passing success rate (49.7%).
— Joe Burrow (CIN) doesn’t have a ton of upside in a road game with San Francisco, but it’s not that bad of a spot. The 49ers just let Kirk Cousins get 22 fantasy points, so I’m optimistic Burrow can produce after a week of rest. Burrow also looked better in his final two games before their bye, completing 74.1% of his passes, tossing five touchdowns, and scoring 39.2 fantasy points. While he’s only faced Kyle Shanahan once in his career, he didn’t disappoint. Back in 2021, Burrow had 348 yards and a pair of scores against the 49ers.
— Dak Prescott (DAL) has become underrated in fantasy circles. Yes, he enters Week 8 as the QB21 on a per-game basis (14.6). And sure, the Cowboys are passing at a -2.6% rate over expectation. But, I’m included to throw Weeks 1-5 out the window considering Dallas didn’t play a single game that ended within 10 points over that span. The first time they had a “normal” game script in Week 6, Prescott finished as the QB1 on the week. Assuming Dallas’ receivers used the bye to work on their league-worst 5.3% drop rate, Prescott should continue his upward trend against the Rams defense.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX) has scored between 15 and 19 fantasy points in six of Jacksonville’s seven games. There’s something to be said for his consistency, but Lawrence is averaging just 234.7 yards per game despite the Jaguars throwing at the fifth-highest rate over expectation (3.5%). Worse is a measly 3.3% touchdown rate that really limits Lawrence's upside, especially against a Steelers defense allowing the 11th-fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back (0.35) to opposing quarterbacks. I get the appeal, just understand his upside is limited.
— Kirk Cousins (MIN) proved his fantasy relevance even with Justin Jefferson out for at least another two weeks. In a prime-time matchup, Cousins set season highs for completion rate (77.8%) and yards (378) in an upset win over a stellar San Francisco defense. Still, we should temper expectations a bit for Week 8 with a trip to Green Bay. Cousins is averaging just 16.3 fantasy points per game on the road this season and hasn’t scored more than 10.9 points at Lambeau since 2018.
— Brock Purdy (SF) is always going to have upside as the starting quarterback of this 49ers team, but he’s proving to have a pretty lackluster floor. Despite completing 70% of his passes against Minnesota, Purdy threw multiple interceptions for the first time in his career and managed just 14.8 fantasy points. Purdy has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game in seven home starts, but Cincinnati’s defense is above average in EPA per drop-back (-0.13) and passing success rate (45.3%) allowed. He’s start-able in Week 8, but I’m not excited about his upside.
— Sam Howell (WSH) has to at least be mentioned, but certainly not because of his play last week. Howell is fresh off his second-worst fantasy performance of the season — a 10.5-point effort against the Giants in which he completed a season-low 52.4% of his passes. A home matchup with the Eagles is tough, but Howell had 290 yards and 19.6 fantasy points on the road at Philly just a month ago. I’m not thrilled to start him, but Washington’s second-ranked pass rate plus pass rate over expectation (74.9%) puts him in the streaming conversation.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Matthew Stafford (LAR) has a -3.1% completion rate over expectation and a 39.7% passing success rate over the past two weeks. A lot of that can be blamed on a poor outing against the Steelers (48.3% completion rate), but Stafford’s fantasy upside just isn’t there. He has yet to eclipse 17.5 fantasy points, and I have no confidence he’ll do so this week considering the Cowboys have allowed more sub-seven-point games (two) than 20-point games (one).
— Russell Wilson (DEN) had some fun fantasy weeks to start the season, but he’s had a 42.9% pass success rate and scored just 22.8 fantasy points over the past two weeks. The poorer of those two weeks came against Kansas City, which just so happens to be his Week 8 opponent. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points (0.30) and fourth-lowest EPA (-0.24) per drop-back, leaving Wilson on fantasy benches.
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Austin Ekeler (LAC)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
— Alvin Kamara (NO)
— Breece Hall (NYJ)
— Saquon Barkley (NYG)
— Raheem Mostert (MIA)
— D’Andre Swift (PHI)
— Isiah Pacheco (KC)
— Jonathan Taylor (IND)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— James Cook (BUF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Aaron Jones (GB) has been frustrating fantasy-wise. He’s only played three games thus far and has yet to eclipse a 50% snap share. That’s translated to just 34.8 fantasy points total ... and 25.7 of that came in Week 1. There’s a case to sitting him until he proves us right, but unless your roster is crazy-deep, I’m not sure how you’re sitting his legitimate RB1 potential. The Vikings have been stout against the run this season, but they’re allowing the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.32) to running backs.
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE). He has been dubbed one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments, but the tide is turning. Stevenson has turned in consecutive top-20 finishes, during which he’s had his two highest target shares of the season (19.4% and 20%). The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.27) and the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.70) to running backs, keeping Stevenson’s arrow pointed firmly up.
— Rachaad White (TB) may not be especially efficient (31.3% rushing success rate) or explosive (five runs of 10-plus yards), but he’s going to continue being a fantasy asset as long as he’s getting that volume. White has yet to play fewer than 70% of offensive snaps this season and is in the top 20 league-wide with 21.5 adjusted opportunities (carries-plus-2x targets) per game. That volume could finally translate to a breakout fantasy performance in Week 8, as the Bills have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt (1.07). Make sure White is in your starting lineup.
— Gus Edwards (BAL) is back. Edwards had 20.9 half-PPR points in Week 7, ending a six-week stretch that had him score between 4.8 and 5.9 points five times. He received double-digit carries for the sixth consecutive game and out-rushed Justice Hill 14-4 overall and 3-1 in the red zone. Edwards and Hill still split snaps 28-27, but Edwards is clearly the Baltimore back you want to be aboard in fantasy. Start him with confidence against an Arizona defense that’s kept an opposing RB1 under 10 points just once this season.
— Javonte Williams (DEN) is rounding into form. Williams eclipsed a 50% snap share for the first time last week, racking up a season-high 96 total yards via 15 rushes and three receptions. The matchup is tough, but the Chiefs have allowed the 10th-highest rushing success rate (44.3%), and they let Williams rush for 5.2 yards per attempt just two weeks ago. He’s going to score one of these games. Make sure he’s in your starting lineup when that happens.
— Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (PIT) both produced as top-24 running backs last week. They continue to split snaps, with Harris getting nearly double Warren’s carries (12.8 to 6.7), but Warren doubling Harris' target share (14.8% to 6.6%). That kind of timeshare limits their upside, but I’m bullish on their floor this week. The Jags have allowed the 12th-most adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.59) and the 11th-highest target rate (22.1%) to the position. They can both be started as RB2s or solid FLEXs going forward.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Alexander Mattison & Cam Akers (MIN) had their closest snap share (54.5% to 37.9%) since Akers’ arrival in Minnesota last week. Akers wound up getting more carries (10) than Mattison (eight) while both backs had a 7.0% target share. I was hopeful the bump in targets Mattison had in Week 6 would continue with Justin Jefferson out, but this is looking more like a timeshare by the week. That’s not great for fantasy, but there’s a chance both could thrive in Week 8 against a Packers defense allowing the sixth-highest rushing EPA per attempt (0.01) and the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.64)
— D’Onta Foreman & Roschon Johnson (CHI) will likely end up splitting time if Johnson clears concussion protocol. Foreman is the bigger name after his three-touchdown performance last week, but I won’t be shocked if Johnson — Chicago’s fourth-round pick — immediately takes over as the starter. Still, Chicago ran it 38 times and only threw it 29 times with Tyson Bagent under center last week. That kind of volume gives them both FLEX appeal.
— Darrell Henderson (LAR) turned back the clock to 2021 last week. Just days after being promoted from LA’s practice squad, Henderson had 13.1 fantasy points on a 58.1% snap share. He wasn’t especially efficient (Royce Freeman matched his 66 yards on seven fewer touches), but any running back with volume in Sean McVay’s offense has a role on your fantasy team. The Cowboys present a tough matchup coming off a bye, but you could do worse than Darrell Henderson’s 15-plus touches.
— Emari Demercado (ARI) took hold of the Arizona backfield, playing 79% of snaps and totaling 13 of Arizona’s 14 running back rush attempts. He only posted a 30.8% rushing success rate, but the volume is hard to ignore. The Ravens are a tough matchup, but Demercado’s 15.6% target share at least gives him a solid enough floor to throw into your FLEX.
— Dameon Pierce & Devin Singletary (HOU) looked a lot less like a committee and a lot more like a Devin Singletary-led backfield the most recent time we saw these two in action. Who knows if things changed over their bye, as Singletary out-snapped Pierce 31-21 in Week 6, but they both had 13 total touches. Both of them are hovering under a 6% target share for the season, so there’s normally not much upside in a committee with no pass-catching backs. However, the Panthers have struggled against the run — last in adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.89), success rate (49.3%), and EPA per carry (0.14) — that I’d be OK sliding either into my FLEX this week.
— Tyjae Spears (TEN) is consistently someone I’m not thrilled to start, but he has enough upside that it’s not the worst option. It remains to be seen if he gets a bump in playing time post-bye week, but he’s managed to be productive while playing just 50.9% of snaps. While the Falcons have allowed the fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.45), they’ve also given up the most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.51) to opposing backs. Consequently, Spears’ 12.5% target share gives him some FLEX value.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Brian Robinson & Antonio Gibson (WSH) are easy sits against the Eagles. Robinson has eclipsed 3.2 yards per carry in just two of seven games thus far, while Gibson has played more than 50% of snaps just twice. Philly has allowed the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.45) and the ninth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (0.96) to opposing backs. There just isn’t any sort of upside here.
— Kareem Hunt (CLE) has scored 14.6 and 15.1 fantasy points over the past two weeks, finishing as the RB10 and RB11, respectively. He’s been a nonfactor in the passing game, but has shown some surprising efficiency out of the backfield (45.5% rushing success rate). With Jerome Ford injured, Hunt could be looking at 15 to 20 opportunities per game over the next few weeks. That volume is hard to keep out of lineups, but I’m not thrilled to start him this week against a Seahawks front allowing the lowest rushing success rate (32.2%) in the NFL. His floor is decent, but I don’t see how he eclipses double-digit points.
— Chuba Hubbard & Miles Sanders (CAR) have a decent matchup against the Texans this week, but your guess is as good as mine of who gets more work between the two. Hubbard led the way with a 51.5% snap share from Weeks 4-5 before serving as a near-every-down starter with Sanders out in Week 6. I’m just avoiding both until we get a better idea of what’s going on.
— Zack Moss (IND) again had Jonathan Taylor approach his snap share as the two split time 50.7% to 49.3% in Week 7. That’s obviously going to continue, so as long as Taylor is healthy, I’m not sure where Moss’ fantasy value comes from. The Saints have a tough defense, forcing Moss onto the bench in fantasy.
— A.J. Dillon (GB) still had more work than Aaron Jones, but I’m not sure how much longer that’s going to continue. Even if was getting all the work, I’d still be fading Dillon this week. He’s had a 39.2% rushing success rate thus far, and the Vikings have allowed the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.49). You can surely do better.
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— Cooper Kupp (LAR)
— Davante Adams (LVR)
— Puka Nacua (LAR)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— Mike Evans (TB)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
— Zay Flowers (BAL)
— Christian Kirk (JAX)
— Terry McLaurin (WSH)
— Adam Thielen (CAR)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Jordan Addison (MIN)
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
— D.J. Moore (CHI)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Tee Higgins (CIN) has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy. He enters Week 8 as the WR69 with just 33.9 fantasy points. Still, we’re talking about someone who’s finished inside the top 24 wide receivers each of the past two years and has dealt with a nagging rib injury. I’m optimistic the week off will have Higgins looking more like his former self against a 49ers defense that just gave up 378 yards through the air.
— Chris Godwin (TB) is dealing with a neck injury, but could play on Thursday after practicing in a limited fashion early this week. The Bills have allowed the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to wideouts, and Godwin has had a 24.9% target share this season. That makes him a near must-start given the potential for positive touchdown regression (zero touchdowns on nine red zone targets).
— Michael Pittman Jr. & Josh Downs (IND) proved their worth against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, as both Indy wideouts finished as top-12 receivers. Both Pittman (27.8%) and Downs (20.1%) are getting a healthy dose of targets and can be confidently played this week, even against a solid New Orleans secondary.
— George Pickens & Diontae Johnson (PIT) both managed to be productive in their first game together since Week 1. Any worries about Johnson cutting into Pickens’ workload were quickly erased after Pickens had his highest target share of the season (34.8%). That didn’t have much of an impact on Johnson as he had a 26.1% share. Jacksonville has been decent against the pass, but their volume is too strong to fade.
— Rashee Rice (KC) keeps expanding his role. Rice had his highest snap share (59.4%) and the third-highest target share (15.0%) of his career in Week 7. He added his third score of the season to finish with his best fantasy outing yet (14.5 points). An elite 2.72 yards per route run points to a continued breakout as his snap share grows. He’s an easy WR3 and FLEX against the Broncos secondary this week.
— Drake London (ATL) has had a 28.8% target share since Week 2, yet is averaging just 11.2 fantasy points per game over that span — thus is life in coach Arthur Smith’s offense. Still, he’s provided a solid floor of fantasy production and could be in store for his best outing of the season with the Titans on deck. Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.59), the fifth-highest target rate (22%), and the fifth-highest catch rate (73.1%) to opposing wide receivers.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Marquise Brown (ARI) has had turned in his two lowest-scoring weeks of the season in his past two games, but I’m not sure things improve this week. He continues to have a stellar 27.1% target share, but there isn’t a ton of upside with Josh Dobbs up against a Ravens secondary allowing the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (1.09). Arizona is a big underdog, so a negative game script could boost him to WR3 status, but there isn’t much upside.
— Nico Collins, Robert Woods, & Tank Dell (HOU) have three games together where Dell has played at least 60% of the snaps. In those games, Collins and Woods both had a 21.2% target share, but Dell is right behind them at 20.2%. They shared a similarly identical air yard share, so I’m not convinced any of these three are the bona-fide No. 1 option. The Panthers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.49), so there’s certainly room for all three to produce. I have both Collins and Dell as solid WR3s with Woods rounding out as a WR4. This receiving group is difficult to project, to say the least.
— Jakobi Meyers (LV) produced without him last week, but Meyers’ fantasy stock is largely reliant on Jimmy Garoppolo’s health. In four games with Garoppolo, Meyers has had a 30.0% target share and a 62.5% end zone share en route to 17.1 fantasy points per game. That’s a must-start profile, but he’d be knocked down dramatically if Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell were forced to start against a strong Lions defense.
— Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed (GB) were both top-36 wide receivers with Christian Watson sidelined for the first three games. Over that span, they each had a 25.1% target share and at least a 23% red zone target share. They each caught a touchdown after he left in Week 7, so I’m confident they’d be strong fantasy plays if Watson missed Sunday’s game. Minnesota’s secondary looked solid against San Francisco, but it still has allowed the 10th-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.44) to opposing wideouts. If Watson is able to go, he and Doubs would be FLEX plays, while Reed would be relegated to fantasy benches.
— Kendrick Bourne (NE) has played at least 85% of New England’s snaps four times this season, including each of the past three games. In those games, Bourne has had a 23.3% target share and a 35.3% red zone share en route to 13.6 fantasy points per game. As long as his playing time stays consistent, we can confidently slot Bourne into our FLEX spots, especially against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed a 70.4% catch rate and seven touchdowns to opposing wideouts.
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) has always been a boom-or-bust fantasy option. He boomed from Weeks 2 to 5 with four touchdowns and 15.2 fantasy points per game (good for WR12 over that span), but has since struggled fantasy-wise. Davis has just 2.7 fantasy points in the past two games, but there’s at least some hope he gets back on track this week. The Bucs have given up the ninth-most yards per route run to opposing receivers this season, making Davis a high-risk, high-reward FLEX yet again in Week 8.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Amari Cooper (CLE) has yet to get fewer than 17% of Cleveland’s targets, but the Seahawks’ secondary has been good enough that I’m more than fine sitting Cooper this week.
— Calvin Ridley (JAX). Ridley had one of the worst games of his career last week (one reception for 5 yards) and has now scored fewer than six fantasy points in four of his seven games with the Jaguars. I’m optimistic he turns things around at some point, but there’s no way I’m starting him coming off that game with a matchup in Pittsburgh on deck.
— Courtland Sutton (DEN) caught another touchdown last week — his fifth of the season. While his target share (22.3%) remains strong, I’m not eager to start him against Kansas City. He scored against them two weeks ago but only finished with four receptions for 46 yards. The Chiefs have allowed the third-lowest catch rate (55%) and the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (1.06) to wide receivers thus far. Expect touchdown regression to hit this week.
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) has eclipsed 8.5 fantasy points just twice this season and is facing a stout Atlanta secondary. What more do you need to hear to fade D-Hop this week?
— Jerry Jeudy (DEN) has the same concerns as Courtland Sutton this week, but with none of the touchdown upside.
— K.J. Osborn (MIN) is, at best, the third option in this Minnesota offense right now. With Kirk Cousins funneling 47.9% of his targets to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson the past two weeks, there just isn’t enough volume for Osborn to have fantasy relevance against a good Packers secondary.
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Sam LaPorta (DET)
— Dallas Goedert (PHI)
— Darren Waller (NYG)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
— George Kittle (SF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Dalton Kincaid (BUF). Kincaid broke out last week and set career-best marks for receptions (eight), targets (eight), and yards (75). With Dawson Knox already ruled out, Kincaid has a chance to solidify himself as the No. 2 receiving option in Buffalo. I’m all-in on the first-round pick and so should you.
— Jake Ferguson (DAL) garnered his lowest target share of the season (3.3%) in his most recent game before the bye week, but actually had his highest snap share (86.9%) of the season. The Rams have allowed the seventh-highest target rate (19.6%) and the third-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.72) to tight ends this season, giving me confidence in a Ferguson bounce-back.
— Dalton Schultz (HOU) has been on a roll with touchdowns (three in his past three games), but also had his target share increase north of 29% in Houston’s past two games before their bye. There are a lot of options in Houston, but the Panthers have allowed the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.56) to opposing tight ends. That’s enough to make Schultz a capable fantasy starter this week.
— Kyle Pitts & Jonnu Smith (ATL) are coming off a down week, but they still slot in as the TE11 and TE12 on the season. I’m bullish on both of Atlanta’s tight ends with both Pitts (19.3%) and Smith (16.1%) getting solid target shares. Tennessee has allowed the fourth-highest catch rate (80.6%) and the second-highest catch rate over expectation (11.3%) to opposing tight ends this season, giving both guys a solid floor.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Logan Thomas (WSH) had his third-highest target share of the season (16.7%) last week. While it only amounted to 7.1 fantasy points, that was good enough to finish as the 13th-highest-scoring tight. Philly held him to just 5.8 fantasy points a month ago, but the Eagles have given up the highest catch rate over expectation (14.4%) and the most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.73) to tight ends this season. With Washington facing a negative game script, you can do a lot worse than Thomas this week.
— Taysom Hill (NO) is the TE4 in half-PPR over the past two weeks. Hill has had 13 targets and six rushing attempts over that span in addition to running a route on 67% of New Orleans’ drop-backs. He has upside this week, but expect his receiving volume to dip if Juwan Johnson returns.
— Michael Mayer (LV) didn’t do much without Garoppolo last week, but he notably eclipsed a 70% snap share for the second consecutive week. There’s no way I’d play him if Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell ended up starting, but he showed enough upside in Week 6 to consider him if Garoppolo returned.
— David Njoku (CLE) led the Browns with a 25.7% target share last week — his highest mark of the season. Like the rest of Cleveland’s pass catchers, I’m bullish on Njoku rest of season but can’t trust him this week. Njoku might actually benefit from P.J. Walker starting again, but the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-lowest target rate (13.8%) and just 1.28 adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends this season. Stash him for better matchups.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Cole Kmet (CHI) did not get a target despite running a route on 61.3% of Tyson Bagent’s drop-backs last week. Even against the Chargers defense, that lack of usage makes him impossible to trust.
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) is a distant third option among LA pass catchers at this point. And even then, Tutu Atwell has way more big-play upside. While Dallas has been struggled against tight ends this season, Higbee’s lack of usage should keep him on fantasy benches this weekend.
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