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Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Final Projections for the 96th Oscar Nominations

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. The Holdovers (Focus)
5. The Zone of Interest (A24)
6. Poor Things (Searchlight)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)

Alternate
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)

Potential Surprise
Rustin (Netflix)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Best Director

Projected Nominees
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
4. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Alternate
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Potential Surprise
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast

Best Actor

Projected Nominees
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Alternate
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Potential Surprise
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast

Best Actress

Projected Nominees
1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
4. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Alternate
Annette Bening (Nyad)

Potential Surprise
Greta Lee (Past Lives)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

Projected Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
5. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Alternate
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)

Best Supporting Actress

Projected Nominees
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
4. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

Alternate
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Julianne Moore (May December) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast

Best Adapted Screenplay

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
4. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
5. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

Alternate
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese) — podcast (Scorsese)

Potential Surprise
All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)

Best Original Screenplay

Projected Nominees
1. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)

Alternate
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)

Potential Surprise
May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Air (Alex Convery)

Best International Feature

Projected Nominees
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. Fallen Leaves (Finland)
4. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Alternate
The Taste of Things (France)

Potential Surprise
Four Daughters (Tunisia)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Anatomy of a Fall (France)

Best Documentary Feature

Projected Nominees
1. American Symphony (Netflix) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. 32 Sounds (Abramorama)

Alternate
The Eternal Memory (MTV)

Potential Surprise
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Kokomo City (Magnolia)

Best Animated Feature

Projected Nominees
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Nimona (Netflix)
4. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
5. Suzume (Crunchyroll/Sony)

Alternate
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Robot Dreams (Neon)

Best Cinematography

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
4. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
5. The Zone of Interest (Lukasz Zal)

Alternate
Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)

Potential Surprise
El Conde (Edward Lachman)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)

Best Costume Design

Projected Nominees
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
5. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)

Alternate
Maestro (Mark Bridges)

Potential Surprise
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Priscilla (Stacey Battat)

Best Film Editing

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
4. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
5. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)

Alternate
Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)

Potential Surprise
The Killer (Kirk Baxter)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Past Lives (Keith Fraase)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Projected Nominees
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
5. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)

Alternate
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

Potential Surprise
Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Barbie (Ivana Primorac)

Best Original Score

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
4. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt) — podcast (Ronson)
5. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)

Alternate
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)

Potential Surprise
The Holdovers (Mark Orton)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Origin (Kris Bowers)

Best Original Song

Projected Nominees
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
4. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast

Alternate
“It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson

Potential Surprise
“Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
“Better Place” (Trolls Band Together), Amy Allen, Karl Schuster & Justin Timberlake — podcast (Timberlake)

Best Production Design

Projected Nominees
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)

Alternate
Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)

Potential Surprise
Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)

Best Sound

Projected Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
4. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)

Alternate
Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)

Potential Surprise
The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Color Purple (Richard Bullock, Paul Massey, Steve Morrow, Julian Slater & Renée Tondelli)

Best Visual Effects

Projected Nominees
1. Poor Things (Simon Hughes)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams)
3. The Creator (Jonathan Bullock, Charmaine Chan, Ian Comley & Jay Cooper)
4. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Neil Corbould, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Alex Wuttke)
5. Society of the Snow (Félix Bergés, Pau Costa & Laura Pedro)

Alternate
Napoleon (Henry Badgett, Neil Corbould, Charley Henley & Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet)

Potential Surprise
Godzilla: Minus One (Kosuke Taguchi & Takashi Yamazaki)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Oppenheimer (Mike Chambers, Dave Drzewiecki, Scot Tisher, Andrew Jackson & Giacomo Mineo)

Best Animated Short

Projected Nominees
1. Once Upon a Studio (Disney)
2. Wild Summon
3. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
4. Ninety-Five Senses
5. Boom

Best Documentary Short

Projected Nominees
1. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Camp Courage (Netflix)
3. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
4. The Last Repair Shop (L.A. Times/Searchlight)
5. Oasis (New York Times Op-Docs)

Best Live-Action Short

Projected Nominees
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Strange Way of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The Anne Frank Gift Shop (Reboot)
4. Yellow (MUBI)
5. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)

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