Terran Orbital Corporation (NYSE:LLAP) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Terran Orbital Corporation (NYSE:LLAP) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest full-year results, closing yesterday at US$1.59. Terran Orbital reported revenues of US$94m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$1.28 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Terran Orbital

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Terran Orbital from six analysts is for revenues of US$240.6m in 2023 which, if met, would be a major 155% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 29% to US$0.81. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$247.2m and US$0.65 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Terran Orbital after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$9.29, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Terran Orbital, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Terran Orbital's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 155% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 44% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Terran Orbital to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Terran Orbital going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Terran Orbital (3 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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