Prof Chris Whitty's 'trade-offs' warning could mean pubs closing so schools can open

Britain has "probably reached the limit of opening up society" and will only be able to open schools in September by trading some existing freedoms, the chief medical officer has warned.

On Friday, Professor Chris Whitty said Britain had gone as far as it safely can to restore normality and may now have to sacrifice existing freedoms, such as the reopening of pubs, to stem the spread of coronavirus.

"We have probably reached near the limits, or the limits, of what we can do in terms of opening up society," he told a hastily-convened Downing Street press conference.

"So what that means, potentially, is if we wish to do more things in the future we may have to do less of some other things. And these will be difficult trade-offs, some of which will be decisions of Government and some of which are for all of us.

"But we have to be realistic about this – the idea that we can open up everything and keep the virus under control is clearly wrong."

Opening up schools is "an absolute priority", Prof Whitty stressed, echoing the words of Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister.

But achieving this in September could mean recently returned freedoms, like the opening of pubs and restaurants and mixing between households, are again under threat.

"We are at the outer edge of what we can do, and therefore choices will need to be made – but people I think are very clear, for example, that schools are an absolute priority for the welfare of children," Prof Whitty said.

"This is a situation where, if we go beyond a certain point in terms of people getting together, linking up households, the rates of this virus will start to increase.

"We have probably reached the limits of that, and if people continue to increase the number of people they meet, increase the social interactions they have, then the virus rates will go up absolutely inevitably. So this is really within our hands as society as to how we have to respond to this.

"We've got to stop now – we may have to pull back a bit, in fact, to keep this under control. If we do pull back, then we should be able to hold the line."

One Government source said: "The concerns are about transmission indoors, so when there is talk about trade-offs there is the option to reverse some of the recent measures – to close pubs so you can open schools.

"Clearly, pubs and restaurants only opened a few weeks ago, so it's an area that we will keep an eye on, but at the moment the concern is transmission within households."

Government sources said the lockdown in the north of England (see video above) had been driven by a failure to adhere to social distancing within the home and within "loosely defined" households across large extended families.

On Friday night, one senior health official said Prof Whitty did not feel it was his job to determine which sacrifices lay ahead – that would be for ministers.

But in making such a detailed public statement, the chief medical officer has turned all eyes to Mr Johnson as he considers Britain's precarious position.

A source close to Prof Whitty said: "Chris feels you can't have any further easements of lockdown now without pulling back on something else.

"Clearly, schools are a priority. But as far as he's concerned, it's not for him to decide what measures you reintroduce to allow that to happen – that one is down to ministers.

"But he feels very strongly that you cannot make any more relaxations now unless you tighten up another measure to compensate."

One health official said on Friday that the deteriorating situation could see pubs closed in some areas in order to reduce transmission rates and make it safer for schools to reopen. He said ministers were reluctant to make "blanket" moves to reverse recent relaxations but could not rule it out.

If rates of infection continue to rise, measures are likely to focus first on local restrictions. These could see closures of pubs, restaurants or workplaces if surveillance data links them to outbreaks.

"This is really led by the data," the health official said. "If cases are being fuelled by transmission between households in one part of the country, that's what will be targeted.

"If in another part of the country it's about pubs not enforcing social distancing, then they could be closed, or particular workplaces can be closed, or we could see moves like those in the north-west happening elsewhere.

"There is a real reluctance to introduce blanket bans across the country, to penalise people in the south-west and stop them going to the pub because people in the north-east are mixing within households."

Above all this hangs the hope that fear of losing recently won freedoms will be enough to improve compliance with current rules on social distancing so that infection rates fall.

On Friday, Boris Johnson said: "At this stage, we are not changing the rules on social contact nationally. I don't want to tell people to spend less time with their friends – but unless people follow the rules and behave safely, we may need to go further."