Good news first? Bad news first?
The good: Solo: A Star Wars Story is tracking to quite possibly break all box office records for Memorial Day weekend.
The not-so-hot: Even the high range of the current estimate will place it below the opening weekends of The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, and Rogue One.
Keep in mind, a tracking estimate is just that, an estimate, the same kind of estimate that Avengers: Infinity War recently blew out of the water during its opening weekend. The lowest previous Disney Star Wars title is Rogue One, which opened to $155 million — Solo could still top Rogue One if new film opens above its estimate.
But Disney is looking at a four-day weekend opening of $130 million-$150 million. Again, for this particular weekend, that’s crazy high. No film has ever opened above $140 million over Memorial Day weekend, as so many moviegoers are traveling or out and about. (The current record holder is Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, with $139.8 million back in 2007.)
Plus, the studio points out that Solo is entering a pretty crowded marketplace at the moment, with Deadpool 2 having just opened and Avengers: Infinity War still printing money. The previous three Disney Star Wars titles all opened in mid-December. Plus, of course, Solo is landing just five months after Last Jedi, which is the shortest wait ever for a new Star Wars title.
Reviews have been largely quite positive, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 71 percent. Again, that’s just a bit below Force Awakens (93 percent), Last Jedi (91 percent), and Rogue One (85 percent).
Solo: A Star Wars Story opens in the U.S. and Canada on Friday in 4,380 theaters, with previews starting at 7 p.m. Thursday. It’s also opening day-and-date globally in about 88 percent of the marketplace.