Spain or the UK: where are you safer from coronavirus?

Sudden changes to travel guidelines between the UK and Spain have provoked criticism from the Spanish government and upended travel plans between the two countries for thousands of travellers. Here are some of the key figures that indicate how Covid-19 is being managed in the UK and Spain.

Where are you safer from coronavirus?

The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, challenged the decision of the UK government and said tourists would be safer in most regions of Spain than in the UK.

At first glance, Covid-19 appears to be more prevalent and spreading rapidly in Spain compared to the UK on a national level.

The number of new cases detected is more than three times higher in Spain than the UK in the past two weeks. The number of new cases in Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands, stands at 47.1 per 100,000 people, compared to 12.7 per 100,000 people in the UK in the two weeks to 26 July. Also the R rate, which indicates how rapidly the virus is transmitted, is higher at 1.25 in Spain compared to 0.7-0.9 in the UK.

However, there are large variations within both countries. Although some parts of Spain have seen large increases in the number of cases detected in recent weeks, some regions in England are reporting similar case rates to parts of Spain.

It’s also important to bear in mind that no country knows the true number of people with the virus at any point in time and the number of new cases is dependent on testing. It appears the UK has carried out more tests per 100,000 people compared to Spain, at a rate of 1.7 compared to 0.68 as of 16 July, according to figures from Our World in Data.

Is the quarantine restriction on all travellers arriving from Spain justified?

On a national level Spain is reporting higher numbers of new cases of Covid-19 and a more rapid spread of the virus. However, there are very clear regional differences.

Only six regions of Spain, primarily concentrated in the north-east of the country, reported more new cases than some parts of the UK. Aragón, Navarra, Catalonia, the Basque country and La Rioja as well as the capital, Madrid, have all reported more new cases compared to anywhere in the UK in the past two weeks. In the UK, Yorkshire and the Humber currently has the highest number of new cases, at 25.8 per 100,000 people in the two weeks to 25 July.

Nine Spanish regions, including key tourist destinations, have seen fewer new cases than the UK average of 12.7 in the past two weeks. The Canaries and the Balearic islands, which were also covered when the restrictions were extended on Monday, in particular have a low rate of new cases, 7.1 and 9.2 respectively.

The wide disparities in the number of new cases could prompt further questions about the blanket restrictions applied to people arriving from Spain.

Are other countries likely to be pulled from the travel corridor list?

There is no agreed definition as to what constitutes a second wave and the threshold for what might prompt a change in travel advice from the UK government is still unclear.

The number of new cases has also been creeping up in France and Germany. France saw a 49% increase in the number of new Covid-19 cases in a week – rising from 3,922 to 5,854 in the week to 25 July, and in Germany cases rose 30% from 2,409 to 3,141 in the same period. Although the growth in new cases hasn’t been as pronounced as that in Spain, both countries have come under increased international scrutiny in recent days.

More than 70 countries are currently on the travel corridor list, meaning people can still travel to England from those countries and may not have to self-isolate on arrival.