Streaming Forecast for 2024: North America to Drop to Third in Markets With Most Subscriber Homes

With the streaming market in North America continuing to mature, the region will drop to third place in the rankings of geographic areas with the most households taking at least one subscription streaming service, according to the latest forecast from research firm Ampere Analysis.

The number of homes with at least one streaming subscription in Western Europe is set to surpass North America next year, “with the U.K. and Germany driving much of this growth,” Ampere said in its survey unveiled on Monday. “North America (USA plus Canada) will fall to the world’s third-largest geographic region for streaming homes after Asia, and now Western Europe.”

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Ampere estimates that Asia will end 2024 with 390.2 million subscription streaming homes, Western Europe with 110.6 million, and North America with 110.0 million. It estimates that North America will account for 49 percent of total global streaming revenue of $125.3 billion.

With countries outside the region forecast to drive streaming growth, North America will also no longer account for the majority of streaming revenue, for the first time falling below 50 percent of global streaming revenue in 2024, according to Ampere.

The implications for content investment are “significant,” the firm highlighted. “Global streamers have been increasingly targeting international markets for production to satisfy the demands of audiences outside the U.S. and bolster further growth in regions with the most potential for new customer acquisition,” its report noted. “Already only 43 percent of Netflix’s upcoming series are being made in the USA, and other streamers are following suit. Amazon Prime and Disney+ also now make fewer than 50 percent of their upcoming shows in the USA, and Paramount+ is rapidly heading the same way.”

Ampere previously noted expanding originals slates for streamers in the U.K.

With Asia being the fastest-growing and largest region for streaming, “it is likely to see the biggest increase in focus for content investment with a knock-on effect for viewers who will see more and more Asian-origin content on their streaming platforms,” Ampere suggested. “Western Europe, too, will become increasingly influential as a source of content on streaming as, moving forward, it is set to remain the second strongest region for streaming customers.”

Guy Bisson, executive director at Ampere, called out “streaming saturation” in North America as the primary driver for the reduced growth in the region. “Other world regions still have headroom for new customers, both in terms of customers entirely new to streaming and in the number of services taken in each home,” he said. “North America also losing its place as the largest revenue-generating region can only accelerate the existing trend for focusing content investment on key growth markets having long-term implications for the U.S. production sectors and for inward investment into Asia and Europe.”

Netflix ended 2022 with its subscriber base in the region of Europe, the Middle East and Africa exceeding that in North America. Its European hit originals have included the likes of Lupin, Dark and Money Heist.

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