Is Anora the frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars?

We're now firmly into awards season, with UK cinemas filling up with the sort of films that will be scooping trophies at the Oscars next year. One of those movies is Anora, which lands in UK cinemas this week and just might be the best bet for the big prize on the night — the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Anora is the latest movie from US filmmaker Sean Baker, who has become a specialist at telling emotional stories from unconventional perspectives. His 2015 movie Tangerine followed the life of a transgender sex worker, while The Florida Project told a story of poverty from the perspective of a young girl living in a motel room within sight of Disney World.

He's again working with an unusual perspective in Anora, which follows the unlikely romance between a stripper and the son of a Russian oligarch. Mikey Madison's central performance as the titular stripper has received plaudits across the board and the movie won the Cannes Film Festival's top prize, the Palme d'Or, earlier this year.

Anora currently boasts a near-perfect 99% approval rating among critics on Rotten Tomatoes, which is about as impressive a response as it's possible for a movie to get. Unsurprisingly given this level of approval, its Cannes silverware, and the pedigree of its director, Anora looks a dead cert to be firmly in the Oscars mix.

Read more: Anora Rocks Best Per Screen Opening Of 2024 As Neon Calls Out Critical & Audience Trajectory Similar To Parasite (Deadline, 6 min read)

The Hollywood awards specialists over at Gold Derby have Anora as the current favourite for Best Picture, with odds of 15/2. It's just ahead of other contenders including unconventional musical Emilia Perez, religious drama Conclave, and Brady Corbet's three-and-a-half-hour historical epic The Brutalist.

Baker is also within touching distance of Corbet in the race for Best Director, while his script is top of the pops in the Best Original Screenplay race, and Madison looks like the clear top contender for Best Actress as things stand.

A victory for Anora would certainly cap off Sean Baker's rise to the top of the Hollywood pyramid, with his movies rising in critical esteem over the years. This is a year without any obvious contender rising to the top, so the performance of Anora in precursor awards in the coming months will be worth monitoring. If Baker, Madison, and the movie continue to appear on shortlists, then their path to Oscars glory could be cemented.

Read more: Anora and Challengers Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners (Variety, 4 min read)

We've increasingly seen bold, risky films climb the Oscars mountain in recent years, with the likes of Parasite and Everything Everywhere All at Once deviating a long way from the standard blueprint of a Best Picture winner. That has left fertile ground for a movie like Anora — essentially a romantic comedy with crime elements — to emerge as frontrunner. It's an interesting Oscars picture, for sure.

Of course, this could also be the year Hollywood reaches for a blockbuster winner. Oppenheimer brought its box office domination to the Oscars stage last year and the 2025 ceremony could shower glory upon Dune Part Two.

But Anora, as things stand, looks like it could be the movie to swagger to glory when the Oscars are handed out in March next year. So now is a great time to head out to the cinema and catch the movie so that you're fully informed by the time the nominations roll in.

Read more: Anora at London Film Festival review: A flawless anti-Cinderella story for the ages (The London Standard, 4 min read)

Sometimes, British audiences are forced to wait until late in the day to see big awards season movies, so let's make the most of getting to see Anora in time to get excited about it along with the rest of the world.

Anora is in UK cinemas from 1 November.